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Author Topic:   Can't Get There from Here (July 2001)
Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 08-27-2001 11:37 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The July Public Policy update is now online.

Kevin Ott
True Believer
posted 08-27-2001 11:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Kevin Ott   Click Here to Email Kevin Ott     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I've always felt it was a damn shame that we never got around to getting back to the Moon, and that nobody's been making serious plans to go to Mars -- despite all the press the Red Planet gets -- and that, on the whole, 2001 wound up being more Stan Laurel than Stan Kubrick. Especially here in these United States.

We're more than the children of explorers -- we're a nation of frontier-seekers. We landed on the East Coast and pushed forward to the West Coast until there was nowhere else left to push. We pushed into the suburbs and back into the cities, trying to rediscover the things we might have missed the first time. As we've run out of room to move, things haven't been too cool. It's a pretty frustrating thing for an American, not having anywhere left to explore.

I frequently get excited when I read about new technological developments on sites like Space.com, but it's hard to find people that share that excitement. We don't have money to waste on space travel, they say. We've got plenty of problems on Earth without frittering money away gallivanting through space. To that, I would probably say that there's plenty of money to spend on space exploration -- it's just a matter of how federal dollars are appropriated. I would also say that there are plenty of problems here on Earth that could be addressed by exploring other worlds. Space travel is an industry; if it grew, it could create jobs. Buzz Aldrin himself has predicted that space tourism could be a booming industry in the future. The moon and Mars are full of minerals yet to be discovered. In an atmosphere already inhospitable to life, environmental standards for industries may be relaxed. And space is full of, well, space -- a valuable commodity for a planetary ecosystem rapidly approaching its carrying capacity.

Sure, a lot of this is pie-in-the-sky stuff, unlikely to happen for decades, possibly centuries. But the point is that it's possible. And if we're serious about planning for our future… well, let's get started.

Pattie Gillett
True Believer
posted 08-27-2001 11:41 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Pattie Gillett   Click Here to Email Pattie Gillett     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The idea that humans would be no closer to exploring space themselves than we were in the 1970's is enough to give any self-respecting science fiction fan heartburn. Exploration is not just what makes us special, it's our duty. We owe it to ourselves to find out if the things we think are true here are true everywhere. I remembering clipping an article from the NY Daily News several years ago that argues how the discovery of a microscopic organism on Mars would force scientists, theologians and philosophers to rethink our world entirely. Sounds like a goal to me.

In addition to the inherent benefits that come from sending humans to Mars, to the moon, etc, there are the technological achievements that could benefit us on earth. Is it any coincidence that since our space program has slowed, so have technological advances in commercial air travel? Why does it still take almost as long to get from California to London as it did twenty or thirty years ago? Putting speed aside, what about safety? Are our commercial jets any safer today than when they were first designed? With the demise of the Concorde, the failure of the aerospace industry to devise a replacement becomes more obvious.

Yes, getting back into space should be our goal and we should be trying to come up with several different ways to achieve it, not just for what it will allow us to do up there, but for how much better it can be down here.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 08-30-2001 03:27 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
This is a hot-button topic for me, but then you'd never guess that from the foot-tall Apollo command/service/lunar module stack sitting on my desk.

I think Pattie hit the nail on the head - the real payoff, and the way the space program should be sold to the public, is the harvest of earthbound tech benefits. I would say medical benefits, but those are so much in the embryonic stages right now - and they won't evolve beyond that until more of an effort is made to create, launch and man a privately-owned space laboratory.

Were it not for space travel, velcro wouldn't have come about (or at least wouldn't have happened when it did), and I would be required to tie my shoes every day - something which I've never quite mustered the necessary physical dexterity to do. Thank God for velcro. But that's probably more than anyone wanted to know. On the flipside, velcro also makes it possible for a mildly bored horse to de-shoe a human. But more on that another time.

I wish that, even if we're not going to put any kind of effort into manned space flight, more publicity would be granted to the unmanned missions out there. When they don't blow up in Martian orbit, these pieces of free-floating technology simply astound me. I remember staying up for something like 42 hours to watch the entire live coverage of Voyager 2's Neptune encounter in 1989. But that says more for the pitiful state of my life when I was 17 more than anything.

[This message has been edited by Earl Green (edited 08-30-2001).]

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 08-30-2001 11:48 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
What do you guys think of the increased efforts of private organizations, whether it's billionaires buying Russian rocket rides or a private organization like the Planetary Society building its own spaceships? I used to think that it was better to keep space in the hands of the governments, so it woukd 'belong to all peoples,' but now I find myself more interested in letting whomever is willing to do the job get it done.

slgorman
One of the Regulars
posted 08-31-2001 06:48 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for slgorman   Click Here to Email slgorman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Earl, let's not forget Teflon. Damn, no more scrubbing pots and pans. That stuff rocks!

I figure, without a public mandate (or political leadership to drive a public mandate) the government doesn't feel it can justify the high cost of these bold programs. If someone else is willing to foot the bill, good for them. I do see, long term, that this could cause no end of headaches of "this is ours" "no, that's ours" kind of battles, however.

Pattie Gillett
True Believer
posted 09-02-2001 11:48 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Pattie Gillett   Click Here to Email Pattie Gillett     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think I may be leaning towards the who private funding option because the trial and error process that getting to Mars will be is bound to be an long exercise in spending large sums of money on stuff that doesn't work. Having to answer to a Congressional committee regarding expenditures is not exactly an environment conducive to the scientific process, particularly not now.

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 09-18-2001 11:24 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think I may agree -- we may have reached the point where what we need is the influx of capital from a lot of companies working on smaller projects, as opposed to solely a few governments working on large projects. I really hope the Cosmos solar sail project works out, for just that reason.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 10-24-2001 02:12 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thought it would be worth mentioning that the Mars Odyssey orbital probe has successfully made it to Mars, unlike NASA's last two attempts to send vehicles there. There's still some tricky aerobraking designed to put it in its parking orbit until further notice, so stuff could still go wrong, but let me be the first to say that I was immensely relieved that NASA got to squeeze a success in at a time when the hawks in our government are probably eagerly peering at NASA's budget with an eye toward earmarking it for the so-called war effort.

One other cool thing about Mars Odyssey? It's going to be left there indefinitely to be used as a communications relay between future vehicles and Earth. Now that's a good idea.

Seeing the Mars Rover scoot across the surface of the red planet - even if it only happens in the opening credits of "Enterprise" each week - now that's the sort of thing that makes me proud to be from this country.

[This message has been absolutely mangled by Earl Green's attempt to use HTML tags (distastefully maimed and then repaired 10-24-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Earl Green (edited 10-24-2001).]

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 10-30-2001 02:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Further proving that I could even talk to myself about this topic forever, a professor in our own University of Arkansas's chemistry department has proposed a near-earth asteroid probe to NASA which would grab copious samples from three rocks and return those samples to Earth for analysis - and all for a price tag under $3 million. Color me impressed.

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 11-13-2001 10:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The Planetary Society has a Solar Sail prject update on its site. Apparently they had sufficient insurance on the lost suborbital craft to keep the project within cost constraints and get ready for the orbital flight.

Also according to the Society, a House-Senate conference went against President Bush's recommendation and approved funding for an exploration mission to Pluto. A press release is available.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 11-14-2001 01:54 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The very thought of Congress approving a Pluto mission after they nixed the easy way there (Voyager 1 was originally going to head that way)...hell, these ARE the end times after all.

Pattie Gillett
True Believer
posted 11-14-2001 08:52 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Pattie Gillett   Click Here to Email Pattie Gillett     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Earl Green:
professor in our own University of Arkansas's chemistry department has proposed a near-earth asteroid probe to NASA which would grab copious samples from three rocks and return those samples to Earth for analysis - and all for a price tag under $3 million. Color me impressed.

Color me impressed that all that could be accomplished for less than what dot-coms used to spend on weekly pizza parties.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 11-15-2001 03:10 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Technically, I myself am a little walking island of dot-com. Can I pass on the pizza party and just take the millions? 'Cause I know I can't eat that much pizza.

slgorman
One of the Regulars
posted 11-18-2001 12:01 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for slgorman   Click Here to Email slgorman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I absolutely adore the new space.com ad. I actually hollered at some people to be quiet when it came on the other day.

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 11-23-2001 01:17 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Haven't seen the ad in question -- is it the kind of thing you can describe, or does it get lost in the translation?

I popped over to the site and ran into a couple of stories on the status of Russia's space program and its plans to send more space tourists up to the International Space Station. I'm still trying to figure out what I make of all this, whether it's the start of human beings having a more established presence in space, or nothing more than a sideshow.

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 08-26-2002 02:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
And of course, there are some people saying that if we're not going back to the moon any time soon, we may as well send our nuclear waste there.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 08-27-2002 02:44 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Talk about putting the problem off temporarily. It'll still be there waiting for us when we finally get around to going and trying to colonize it.

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 08-27-2002 03:08 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Yeah, the whole rendering-the-moon-unexplorable thing is one of the teeny tiny drawbacks to the proposal.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 10-08-2002 04:06 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
So has everyone heard that we have a likely candidate for a tenth planet? Now all we have to do is remember how to pronounce "Quaoar."

Amy Rizzo
One of the Regulars
posted 10-09-2002 05:09 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Amy Rizzo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Isn't there some sort of legal limit to the number of vowels that can be crammed into one word? (outside of Hawaii, of course).

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 11-27-2002 06:36 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
So...now NASA's working on an evacuation/shutdown/safe mode plan for the International Space Station, just in case the Russian space program can no longer afford to keep the unmanned resupply ships, and the occasional crew swap via Soyuz capsule, coming. But NASA does plan to go back, even if the station has to be shut down for a while.

Of course, they planned to go back to Skylab with an early shuttle launch too. But when the early shuttle launches were delayed from the late 1970s to 1981, atmospheric drag (aggravated by unusually high solar flare activity) slowed Skylab down enough that it fell in 1979.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 02-02-2003 04:55 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
So now we've lost another crew.

A wild jumble of thoughts springs immediately to mind here. I'll just go through them at random.

On the terrorism front: not to be indelicate, but it's a load of horse hockey. We don't have any kind of offensive weaponry that could meet the shuttle at 200,000 feet, traveling at 18 times the speed of sound. I doubt seriously that anyone else does.

Much of the re-entry stage is computer-controlled; the pilots don't actually have manual control of the shuttle until it has gotten through re-entry and is gliding home. It sounds to me like damage to the tiles on the underside (which probably happened at launch) resulted in heat frying critical avionics. There are some critical banking maneuvers that absolutely must happen at this stage of the flight, and they're really out of the crew's control. If the control surfaces aren't responding, control will be lost, simple as that.

I think that's what happened here: the now well-publicized "tank foam" probably smacked an almighty gash in the half-inch-thick maze of heat shield tiles on the left wing, enough that the superheated plasma that envelops the shuttle during re-entry broke through the underbelly, filling the internal volume of that wing (though not used as a fuel tank as with commercial aircraft, the shuttle's wings are, to some extent, hollow and have an internal volume). This would have destroyed all of the sensors that suddenly registered nothing, as well as the landing gear that suddenly registered zero tire pressure. It also would have fried many, if not all, connections between the cockpit to the control surfaces at the rear of the wing, and along with them any chance of gaining manual control. The heat and pressure would tear the wing apart from the inside, and the resulting loss of control would be catastrophic.

Then again...this is just my guess from the available facts and what I know about the structure of the shuttle. I've cut myself shaving with Occam's Razor before.

As for the station, I'm sure they'll shut everything down over the next month and use the Soyuz capsule normally reserved for emergencies to get home. My only fear then is that the ISS will become the next Skylab, which we always intended to return to via the shuttle after the first three crews flew there in Apollo capsules. But the shuttle wasn't ready to fly in 1979, and Skylab came down due to atmospheric drag agitated by solar flares. The Russians are already talking about minimizing their support of the station because their economy can barely support a space program. So I have real concern about the ISS becoming a flying dutchman of sorts.

It's also important to note that the Russians have had re-entry related disasters of their own, all the way back to the first Soyuz launch, and later the first crew of the first manned space station, Salyut 1, whose return capsule slammed into the ground when the parachutes failed. They got past it after some downtime for an investigation, and we should do the same.

However, I think this is the justification we need to press forward on developing the next generation of manned spacecraft. We're lucky to have flown shuttles almost nonstop for 22 years, but despite refits and upgrades, they're built around technology from the Apollo era, and based on tech specs that were approved during the Nixon Administration. We wouldn't be manning an international space station today if we were still leaning on Apollo capsules, and we won't get any further than the space station if we continue to rely solely on the shuttle. The way the shuttle is launched, it's vibrated and impacted severely before it even leaves the atmosphere in the first place. Even though Columbia broke up coming back to Earth, I'm convinced we'll find that the problem that led to the disaster happened at liftoff.

All of this rational, technical talk aside, I think I'm going to go now and resume gripping the edge of my desk until the palms of my hands bleed and whispering "no" over and over again, maybe go sit on my bed in a lotus position and rock back and forth for a bit to spice things up.

It's gotten me through the day so far.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 02-07-2003 09:42 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Wow, looks like I may have nicked myself pretty good with Occam's Razor. This article reveals a whole new piece of evidence that NASA was interested enough in to "ferry" it back to Houston via a T-38 jet. Are we talking about a lightning strike here? It's not without precedent (lighting hit Apollo 12 just seconds after it left the launch pad, and while it played hell with the electric systems until a breaker was reset, the second moon landing proceeded without a hitch from that point on), but it might explain some of the strange readings.

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 02-19-2003 02:47 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I admit, I'm having a hard time thinking about Columbia. I just don't want to know anything until they've had a chance to sift through the debris and come to something resembling a conclusion. More importantly, I want to know what we're going to do next. It feels like a real crossroads here, like we're not going to be able to get away with doing things halfway any more. All or nothing. While I hope for all, we might have a hefty amount of nothing first. I'm not sure what to make of that.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 02-26-2003 05:17 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Here's another news item which brought a tear to my eye.

NASA engineers at the Ames Research Center have reported that contact has been lost with the Pioneer 10 space probe, 31 years after it was launched. The most-traveled man-made object in history, Pioneer 10 was originally intended to survive an unprecedented 21-month arc through the solar system to take the first close-up photos of Jupiter and its moons.

Its radioactive power system - not nuclear-based, but drawing energy from the passive decay of radioactive material (similar to the Voyager probes) - has probably faded to the degree that it can no longer send a signal to Earth. One last faint signal was received on January 22nd, but it contained no telemetry or other information (in fact, no useful data has been returned by Pioneer 10 since April 27th, 2002). NASA has no plans to attempt to contact Pioneer 10 or to listen for further responses.

Traveling at a speed of 32,400mph (still the record for a man-made object), Pioneer has now put over 7.7 billion miles between itself and Earth. To put that in perspective, it crossed the orbit of Pluto - our solar system's most distant known planet - in 1983, and is now more than twice Pluto's distance from the sun; at that distance, Pioneer's radio signals took nearly 12 hours to reach Earth, despite traveling at the speed of light.

Pioneer 10, like sister ship Pioneer 11 (which fell silent in 1995), carries a gold plaque designed in part by the late Carl Sagan, which details - in a kind of scientific hieroglyphic inscription - the solar system and planet from which it originated, the life forms who created it, and the date of its launch. If it isn't disturbed in its path of travel or destroyed by a collision with another object in space, Pioneer 10 will carry this message toward the star Aldebaran, 68 light years away. It will reach the general vicinity of Aldebaran a little over two million years.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 07-21-2003 08:28 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Just some thoughts, as the Apollo 11 landing anniversary was yesterday.

34 years since we first went to the moon, 30.5 since we last went.

Nearly 6 months since a shuttle went into orbit. Could be 6 months more.

And now China is talking about landing men on the moon in the next decade or so...but even so, are we any longer fueled by the kind of competitive fires that sparked the moon race of the 1960s?

Dave Thomer
Guardian of Peace and Justice in the Galaxy
posted 07-26-2003 02:57 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Thomer   Click Here to Email Dave Thomer     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Honestly? At this point, I don't think enough people would care. People weren't wowed enough by Mir to insist that ISS get moving. It might fuel tensions and rivalries in other spheres, but I just don't see the public committing the resources to a massive space effort, not with so many other priorities and with the benefits so ill-defined.

Earl Green
True Believer
posted 10-14-2003 09:13 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Earl Green   Click Here to Email Earl Green     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
About fifteen minutes ago, China became the third nation to put a man in space with their own rocket instead of buying a seat on someone else's launch.

The name of the first "taikonaut" is Lt. Colonel Yang Liwei. His flight is expected to last about 20 hours, quite a bit longer than what was originally announced.

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