Archive for December 5th, 2005

We Interrupt This Broadcast…

Posted December 5, 2005 By Earl Green

ABC News reports tonight that the 9/11 Public Discourse Project Final Report on 9/11 Commission Recommendations has handed failing grades to the U.S. government on many points of its attempts to increase the nation’s security and stabilize other parts of the world. On page 3 of that document, however, I found this interesting:

Provide adequate radio spectrum for first responders – F (C if bill passes)
The pending Fiscal Year 2006 budget reconciliation bill would compel the return of the analog TV broadcast (700 Mhz) spectrum, and reserve some for public safety purposes. Both the House and Senate bills contain a 2009 handover date — too distant given the urgency of the threat. A 2007 handover date would make the American people safer sooner.

Could it be that the constant attempts to consolidate media ownership in America (link leads to an article I originally wrote in the Not News forums in May 2003) might be backfiring on the government itself? The thought that we’re waiting for the continually-delayed NTSC-to-HDTV cutoff date to take hold before doing anything about allocating emergency communications spectrum, or researching alternative communication frequencies or methods, is frankly ludicrous. That’s like saying we’re going to wait until ten million people are driving hybrid cars before we look at the problem of dependency on foreign fuel sources.

The problem lies with the FCC, and with the erosion of ownership regulations. The FCC continues to move the HD start date back because, and this isn’t a bad reason, the realization is sinking in that HDTV is not going to be something everyone can afford anytime soon. And of course, the major media companies are loathe to give up their chunks of the standard-definition broadcast spectrum, because they’re not going to be able to command the advertising sales figures they need to keep the doors open by broadcasting only to the narrow demographic of “people who have been able to afford an HDTV set.” And you better bet that the bigger these media conglomerates are, the more likely they are to have real lobbying power with Congress and the FCC that keep sliding the HDTV switchover date back…and back…and back. It’s not going to happen in 2007. I’ll be amazed if it happens in 2009.

We’ve backed ourselves into a commercial and legislative corner. And we’ve gambled part of our national security on a deadline that has been pushed back several times. The answer isn’t to force broadcasters to give up their frequencies, however – the answer was to find a more feasible, less pie-in-the-sky solution that wasn’t at the mercy of so many other uncontrollable forces.

Seeing the Future

Posted December 5, 2005 By Dave Thomer

Louis Menand has written and edited a number of books about the pragmatist philosophers. I use his anthology Pragmatism: A Reader in my American Thinkers courses. Thanks to a post by Lore Sjoberg at Slumbering Lungfish, I found this terrific book review Menand has written about a book that sounds fascinating: Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? The book is the result of a long-term study of pundit predictions, and it shows that quite frequently so-called experts have no idea what they’re talking about.

Now, on one hand, this is kind of a troubling thing for Deweyan pragmatists like me. We’re all about doing empirical research and using that to make better decisions. But it’s important to note that Dewey warned that experts can quickly get cut off from the experience of the rest of society and start getting too wrapped up in their own concerns. Dewey believed in the ability of the average person to use information provided by experts to make sound decisions on their own. So Tetlock’s findings may fit with that.

Also, Menand writes that Tetlock has found that certain psychological traits can improve predictions. Don’t get wrapped up in a big idea; appreciate the complexity and context of particular situations; admit when you’re wrong; don’t fall in love with particular details. It’s a great discussion of how purely “logical” or “rational” thought is not human beings’ natural mode of dealing with the world. Our brains are wired to take certain shortcuts and use certain devices which may well be necessary given the world’s complexity, but which can often blind us to the mistakes we’re making.

Go check out the review. Well worth the read.